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Uncertainty Modeling in RiverWare

By John Carron, Edith Zagona, and Terrance Fulp, Submitted to the ASCE Journal of Irrigation & Drainage Engineering, 2003.

Abstract: In recent years, reservoir management considerations have expanded to include environmental and recreational objectives, which are often difficult to quantify. With a larger set of operational objectives comes the need to identify trade-offs and uncertainties between the various objectives. Uncertainty modeling contributes to better reservoir management by quantifying the uncertainties and determining the sources of significant uncertainty in predicting reservoir and river conditions that affect environmental habitats and recreational conditions. RiverWare TM employs a first-order, second-moment approach to modeling uncertainty: The method is developed and applied to a case study from the Lower Colorado River. The case study involves evaluation of uncertainties associated with prescribed reservoir pool elevations for purposes of recovering endangered fish species. Comparison of historical forecasts with observed data can provide managers with insight into operational policies that result in greater system uncertainty. Identifying these sources of uncertainty can guide managers in the development of future operational guidelines.

CADSWES - Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems -- edit September 8, 2005 -- e-mail webmaster