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By John Carron, Edith Zagona, and Terrance Fulp, Submitted to the ASCE Journal
of Irrigation & Drainage Engineering, 2003.
Abstract: In recent years, reservoir management considerations
have expanded to include environmental and recreational objectives, which
are often difficult to quantify. With a larger set of operational objectives
comes the need to identify trade-offs and uncertainties between the various
objectives. Uncertainty modeling contributes to better reservoir management
by quantifying the uncertainties and determining the sources of significant
uncertainty in predicting reservoir and river conditions that affect environmental
habitats and recreational conditions. RiverWare TM employs a first-order,
second-moment approach to modeling uncertainty: The method is developed
and applied to a case study from the Lower Colorado River. The case study
involves evaluation of uncertainties associated with prescribed reservoir
pool elevations for purposes of recovering endangered fish species. Comparison
of historical forecasts with observed data can provide managers with insight
into operational policies that result in greater system uncertainty. Identifying
these sources of uncertainty can guide managers in the development of future
operational guidelines.
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