ABSTRACT
Reclamation developed a testbed to evaluate streamflow forecasting methods and reservoir operational projections from the Mid-term Operations Model (MTOM). MTOM is a probabilistic RiverWare model which simulates the operation of 12 reservoirs in the Colorado River Basin. The testbed is formulated in RiverSMART using the new RunRange event which was specifically created for this study. The RunRange event allows the testbed to simulate a series of simulations starting on successive timesteps to have various run durations. The testbed initializes runs at the beginning of each month for 1981-2016 for a duration of at least 24 months. Two separate sets of metrics were developed to analyze the streamflow forecasts and operational projections. The streamflow analysis examined annual Lake Powell unregulated inflow, which was selected because it is an aggregate of all Upper Basin streamflows. The operational projections analysis focused on reservoir pool elevations and operating tiers.

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